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Golden Destiny Weekly Market Analysis

16 Απριλίου 2018.

shipport1Weekly S&P Market Report, Week ending April 13,2018

 

 

Bulk Carriers

 

This week was marked by a weak S&P activity with only 5 units having changed hands. However, the 50% drop compared to the previous week is not an indicator of a weaker market. On the contrary, many market participants have been tempted by the competitive newbuilding prices offered and have placed 18 orders, the highest number of orders as per our data, since the beginning of the year.

On the commodity side, dry cargo market showed signs of recovery, that was mainly driven by the improved picture in Capesizes. Baltic Cape Index has exceed the first resistance point of 1,000 points as of today’s price and prospects of that market segment are very prominent as Brazilian iron ore exports will kick in during the next weeks.

 

Tankers

 

In the tanker segment the number of vessel’s having changed hands remained almost steady w-o-w, at very low levels. At first glance this could be attributed to the impaired market situation. However, this doesn’t seem absolutely correct as in the newbuilding sector the orders have reached their peak for the second time since the beginning of the current year. This is a strong indicator that well established market players, work in a countercyclical pattern placing their newbuilding orders at a period when yards offer very competitive prices for high spec vessels, some of them with attached long time charters. What remains to be seen is if current trend in the demolition market will carry on, in order to keep supply side on reasonable levels.

In the crude oil market there is a lot of ambiguity as to where the prices will finally move. On the one hand there are elevated concerns over an imminent military action from Western forces in the East Mediterranean, where a possible conflict could affect the oil prices. Crude futures surged to four year highs not seen since December 2014, underpinned by greater geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. As of today Brent and WTI have climbed to $72.02, and $67.07 respectively. This increase in the crude oil price is more than welcomed by Saudi Aramco which seeks to increase their market cap, prior its IPO in 2019. Also Saudi Arabia and Iran are also battling over India’s refinery sector, in an attempt to secure their exports. Indian crude oil imports had risen significantly since last year. India’s state controlled refiner MRPL sets to reduce its term volumes of Saudi crude in the current financial year, taking more Iranian crude instead. Iranian crude is more attractive in terms of payment and freight costs as per MRPL. However, Aramco has picked up the gauntlet and agreed to develop a "mega refinery" on India's west coast with three Indian state-owned oil companies, aiming at India's fast growing economy that demonstrates high demand for fuel and petrochemicals.

On the other side, uprising US shale production is counterweighting the upward movement in the crude oil prices, for fears of an upcoming oversupply. This turmoil is more evident in the futures market, where many investors are on the verge of closing their long positions. Something that will inevitably make them pay high premiums considering the reduced number of those providing insurance against a drop in the prices.

 

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